US futures firmer, Crude bid & DXY sub-105.00 with yields modestly firmer - Newsquawk US Market Open
European bourses slip into the red while US futures remain afloat with fresh catalysts somewhat light Crude bolstered after Friday’s pressure alongside ongoing geopols and a handful of bullish catalysts DXY sub-105.00 with peers generally extending gains, though JPY & NZD are capped Bonds han…
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"European bourses slip into the red while US futures remain afloat with fresh catalysts somewhat light

  • Crude bolstered after Friday's pressure alongside ongoing geopols and a handful of bullish catalysts
  • DXY sub-105.00 with peers generally extending gains, though JPY & NZD are capped
  • Bonds hand back some of Fridays post-data gains, yields modestly firmer across the curve
  • Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian PMI, FOMC Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey & BoC Market Participants Survey, Speech from BoE's Pill, Fed's Cook and Earnings from NXP Semiconductor."

"NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • ECB President Lagarde said the ECB is determined to bring inflation down to 2%. 'According to our projections, we will get there in 2025', according to an interview with Greek press conducted on 30th October and released on 4th November.
  • UK PM Sunak will reportedly unveil a North Sea annual oil and gas licensing bill which will allow companies to bid yearly for new licences to drill for fossil fuels, according to the FT. 'There is currently no fixed period between licensing rounds - but this would change under a bill to be announced in Tuesday's King's Speech... Ministers said projects would have to meet net-zero targets and claimed the policy would guarantee energy security.', according to the BBC.
  • UK Chancellor Hunt is facing calls from Tory MPs to lower taxes after figures revealed a multi-billion GBP improvement in public finances since March's budget, according to The Times.

EUROPEAN DATA

  • EU Sentix Index (Nov) -18.6 vs. Exp. -22.2 (Prev. -21.9)
  • EU S&P Global Composite Final PMI (Oct) 46.5 vs. Exp. 46.5 (Prev. 46.5); Services Final PMI (Oct) 47.8 vs. Exp. 47.8 (Prev. 47.8)
  • German HCOB Composite Final PMI (Oct) 45.9 vs. Exp. 45.8 (Prev. 45.8); Services PMI (Oct) 48.2 vs. Exp. 48.0 (Prev. 48.0)
  • UK S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Oct) 45.6 vs. Exp. 46.0 (Prev. 45.0)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • UAW said GM (GM) union leaders support sending this tentative agreement with GM to the membership for a vote. UAW said auto workers at Toyota (7203 JT), Honda (7267 JT), Volkswagen (VOW3 GY), Hyundai (005380 KS), and Tesla (TSLA) deserve record contracts too, according to Reuters.
  • Citizens Bank, a small bank in Iowa, closed by regulators, making it the 6th US bank failure this year, according to BNO News.
  • BoC's Rogers said a rate hike is on the table until 'we are confident that we are clearly on our way', according to Bloomberg. Rogers added that restoring price stability remains the central bank's focus, and despite the delay, the bank is seeing monetary policy 'really starting to take hold'.
  • Barclays sees Fed hiking rates by 25bps in January (prev. December), citing dovish Fed commentary and softer-than-expected October jobs data.
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen says will meet with the Chinese VP in San Francisco on November 9-10th ahead of the APEC summit; US-China working groups will also meet. Will raise serious concerns about large Chinese industrial subsidies.
  • Click here for the US Early-Morning note.

GEOPOLITICS

ISRAEL-HAMAS

  • Israeli PM Netanyahu said there will be no ceasefire until hostages are returned, according to Reuters. Israel's army says it has cut the Gaza Strip in two, according to AFP.
  • Four civilians, three of them children, were killed by an Israeli airstrike in south Lebanon on Sunday evening, according to Sky News.
  • Hezbollah said it fired multiple Grad rockets at the northern Israeli town of Kiryat Shmona in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike in South Lebanon, according to Reuters.
  • Hezbollah lawmaker Fadallah said the Israeli strike which killed children is a 'dangerous development', and will have repercussions, according to Reuters.
  • Lebanon said it will submit a complaint to the United Nations over the killing of civilians including children in an Israeli strike in South Lebanon, according to the Lebanese Foreign Minister cited by Reuters.
  • Israeli military spokesperson said their attacks in Lebanon are made based on intelligence information, according to Reuters.
  • Evacuations from Gaza to Egypt through Rafah crossing were reportedly suspended since Saturday after Israeli strikes on ambulances, according to Egyptian official sources cited by Reuters.
  • Qatar's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the Hamas political office in Doha will remain open so long as it can be used towards peace, and there's no reason to close it now, and added that Qatar is working with Egypt to ensure Rafah crossing remains open, according to Reuters.
  • Egyptian Foreign Minister Shoukry says he cannot justify Israel's actions against Palestinians as self-defence, according to Reuters.
  • Diplomatic adviser to the UAE President said Israel's response to the October 7 attack is disproportionate, and added the Palestinian issue is an Arab issue, according to Reuters.
  • Saudi Arabia strongly condemned the statement issued by an Israeli minister regarding dropping a nuclear bomb on the Gaza Strip, according to Reuters.
  • US Central Command announced that the Ohio-class nuclear submarine has arrived in the Middle East.
  • US President Biden said 'yes' when asked if there has been any progress on a humanitarian pause in Gaza, according to Reuters.
  • US Secretary of State Blinken said the US is intensely focused on bringing home hostages from Gaza. He said a humanitarian pause could advance the prospect of getting hostages back, while adding the current flow of aid to Gaza is grossly insufficient, according to Reuters.
  • US Secretary of State Blinken told Palestinian leader Abbas that the Palestinian Authority should play a central role in what comes next in Gaza, according to a Senior State Department Official cited by Reuters. Blinken made clear that Palestinians must not be forcibly displaced and reiterated US commitment to advancing dignity, and security for Palestinians and Israelis alike, according to Reuters.
  • Iran's Defense Minister warned the US it 'will be hit hard' if it does not implement a ceasefire in Gaza, according to Tasnim cited by Reuters. Iran's Vice President said the tragedy in Gaza cannot be ignored, according to Reuters.
  • The Turkish Foreign Minister reportedly discussed the situation in Gaza with the Egyptian and Jordanian counterparts. They exchanged views on stopping attacks on civilians in Gaza and achieving an urgent ceasefire, according to a Turkish diplomatic source cited by Reuters.
  • French Foreign Minister said the humanitarian conference on November 9th will cover the respect of international law, and will call for a concrete mobilization for the civilian population in Gaza, according to Reuters.
  • TotalEnergies (TTE FP) has raised security vigilance for its operations in the Middle East, according to Reuters.

OTHERS

  • Armed factions claim to target Ain al-Assad base in Iraq with 4 missiles, according to Sky News Arabia citing their correspondent.
  • US Secretary of State Blinken in Iraq, said he had a very good and candid conversation with the Iraqi leader and said attacks on US personnel are a matter of Iraqi sovereignty and against its own interests, according to Reuters.
  • The Turkish military conducted air strikes against Kurdish militants in northern Iraq, hitting 15 targets, according to the Defense Ministry cited by Reuters.
  • Russian Defense Ministry said a new atomic submarine conducted a test launch of a Bulava intercontinental missile in the White Sea, according to Reuters.
  • Belarus Foreign Ministry summons Polish Charge D'Affaire over violation of its airspace on Nov 2nd, according to a statement.
  • Russia is moving to expand its military presence in eastern Libya, according to Bloomberg.
  • Japanese PM Kishida said Japan will continue to contribute to enhancements of Philippine security capabilities and stated that in the South China Sea, a trilateral cooperation to protect the freedom of the sea is underway, according to Reuters.
  • China's Defense Ministry, in response to Canada accusing Chinese fighter jets of 'unsafe interception,' states that China's response was professional while adding Canada's move violates China's laws and jeopardizes China's security, according to Reuters.
  • Iraqi PM arrived in the Iranian capital as part of an official visit, according to Asharq News.
  • Russian President Putin has decided to run for President again in 2024, via Reuters citing sources; Russian President Putin has not announced he would run for another presidential term and no campaign yet, via Peskov."