"The #Brent crude futures market has been reflecting tighter supply, as near-term backwardation steepens, partly over concerns about shipping delays as vessels avoid the #RedSea due to the escalating risks in the region. For crude oil flows, the risks have mostly affected the #tankers carrying Mideast crude to the refiners in Europe and the Mediterranean.
A total of seven tankers – all loaded in the Middle East Gulf heading for destinations in Europe and the Mediterranean – have now diverted towards the #Cape of Good Hope, including those previously idling near the Gulf of Oman over the past few days (see figure below). Volumes that have rerouted totaled 9.58 million barrels so far, adding to the tankers’ tonne-mile demand.
Two tankers that stayed on the normal route towards Bab el Mandeb recently are headed for the ports in the Red Sea, including the Suezmax New Pride. She is carrying 1 million barrels of Arab Extra Light for the port of Aqaba, currently signaling 'no Israel connection' near the Gulf of Aden.
Flows in the opposite direction, i.e., southbound flows through the #Suez Canal, comprised largely of Russian-loaded crude, also continue to traverse through the Red Sea. Commodities at Sea has not identified any Russian-loaded crude tanker vessel rerouting to the Cape of Good Hope. Three Suezmax cargoes of Azerbaijan’s Azeri Light earmarked for India also had traveled southwards through the conflict zone in the last few days."