Christopher Sharman
Christopher Sharman: "China & Taiwan Watchers: China's all-domain pressure campaign against Taiwan is in full swing.
While many speculated the PLA would conduct a demonstration of force following Taiwan's recent election, the PRC has taken a more subtle and strategic approach. PRC's recent actions are calculated to fall below the threshold that would raise international alarms about escalating cross-Strait tensions.
This time, the #PRC has changed its commercial flight routes in sensitive areas of the Taiwan Strait.
Background: In 2015 Beijing and Taipei agreed that only southbound flights would use the M505 route and flights would operate 6NM west of the route. Beijing and Taipei also agreed W121, W122, and W123 would not be established until both sides of the Strait agreed on the route implementation. That changed in 2018 when Beijing announced northbound flights would use the M505 route and its westbound flights would use W121, W122, and W123.
What just changed yesterday? The Civil Aviation Administration of #China (CAAC) announced its eastbound flights would be also be allowed to use W122 and W123. Moreover, it announced flights on M503 would no longer need to operate 6NM west of the route (i.e. now they will operate closer to Taiwan).
So What? The PRC could easily obfuscate its military activity and use these new eastbound routes to disguise military aircraft to fly within these commercial routes. Opening eastbound routes along W122 and W123 also forces Taipei to quickly distinguish PRC military flight activity from routine commercial flights. This is risky. Mistakes happen.
Almost every day, the #PLAAF is flying its aircraft over the Taiwan Strait and across the centerline. #PLAN ships are operating closer and closer to Taiwan. Eastbound PRC commercial flights originating in the mainland risk introducing an additional complication to cross-Strait dynamics in what is already a tense part of the world.
While there haven't been recent #PLA demonstrations of force that have garnered extensive media attention, the PRC continues to pressure Taiwan across all domains. Recent examples include increasing international political pressure (i.e. Nauru's diplomatic switch two weeks ago), China's daily drumbeat of military activity in the Strait, and now this change to commercial routes that further encroaches on Taiwan's airspace.
What will be Beijing's next subtle step?"
#BadPanda